Nightmare Scenario: Violent Coup d’Etat on January 6, 2021
Donald Trump has unexpectedly returned to Washington from Florida, most probably in order to closely follow the organization of a mass march by his followers, many of them undoubtedly armed, on January 6, the day the Electoral College votes are supposed to be counted in Congress with Mike Pence presiding. It is widely believed that Trump is dead set against leaving the presidency because he fears being indicted and convicted on serious New York State charges (which cannot be pardoned) and being jailed, perhaps along with his children, once he is no longer president. It is an existential matter for him, beyond the loss of all his wealth. He may also, deep down, fear that presidential pardons for himself and his family covering federal crimes may actually be constitutionally invalid when tainted by conflict of interest, self-interest, and corruption.
The nightmare scenario is that a desperate Trump will organize a commando style mob of his armed supporters (perhaps trained by foreign agents) to storm the Capitol on January 6 and interrupt the counting of the Electoral College vote and destroy the ballots. The Capitol police would be overwhelmed, incapable of defending the congressional meeting. Perhaps Democratic senators and representatives would be singled out, beaten and even shot. Trump would defend the attack as righteous to defend democracy against a fraudulent election, even without having any evidence to back up his claim. He would then declare he is the real winner of the election, by a landslide, while asserting that Biden was not officially certified as president elect. Trump’s modus operandi: the more you lie, the better; the bigger the lie, the better; cheat while calling others cheaters even when they’re honest.
#Having recently replaced the top people in the Defense Department with diehard followers, he would proceed to fire the top generals and install new generals willing to obey all his commands, even unconstitutional ones. He would then proclaim that all the Democratic senators and representatives have committed treason and have them jailed if not summarily executed.
What were all his private meetings and conversations about with the leader of an adversarial undemocratic nation, with no American interpreter present? To learn how to execute a coup d’état, as happened in Russia with Lenin and in Germany with Hitler? That cannot be excluded, since Trump has shown a fondness for dictators, a desire to be president for life, while being a serial liar and fraud, a person who does not play by the rules, a person who follows Hitler’s playbook by repeatedly claiming that the mainstream press is “fake news” and full of lies, knowing that large numbers of citizens, being naïve, undereducated, and easily duped, will believe him.
This nightmare scenario would hardly be possible were it not that Trump got 74 million votes, almost half the electorate, meaning that almost half of Americans have no problem with a liar who violates democracy and disregards election results legitimized by numerous official recounts and court decisions rejecting his unfounded claims of voter fraud. It is a real possibility that his supporters, including many Republican members of Congress, would go along with a coup d’etat, many of them actively backing it if not participating in it. If enough truly patriotic senators and representatives believed the risk of a coup was real, they would impeach and remove Trump immediately, before a coup could be attempted. That type of existential risk to our democracy, no matter how improbable, should not be run. Hitler was given extra chances to destroy Germany’s democracy, and he finally succeeded. Have we learned from history?
How can this be even remotely possible? It can be when so many Americans are so poorly educated, illogical, and perhaps so mentally disturbed that they fall for a transparent con man, as well as for absurd conspiracy theories and an organization such as QAnon without even knowing who leads it. This is the consequence of having severely deficient public schools for decades and decades, with the result that many Americans find themselves fallen far behind and desperate for a savior. This shameful situation is the fault of all our presidents, governors, senators, representatives, and mayors of the past fifty years who have led the nation with extreme incompetence.
If we luck out and this seemingly far-fetched nightmare scenario does not come to pass, we should not remain complacent and do nothing about greatly improving our high schools nationwide. We urgently need a vastly upgraded curriculum; indeed we need an ambitious national core curriculum and a demanding, prestigious national high school graduation exam, with college scholarships awarded by the federal government to all students needing financial assistance. Given that it is in the national interest for all our citizens to have a solid, well-rounded educational base from high school, all public schools should be financed by the federal government since not all states or localities have sufficient means and we need educational uniformity at a high level.
Imagine the enormous difference if the public high school curriculum included, as it should, the following courses: 1) logic and critical thinking (an antidote against falling for QAnon, cults, con men, aspiring dictators, dishonest and corrupt politicians, demagogues, liars and spinners; against believing Covid-19 is a “Democratic hoax”; against politicizing public health measures such as mandatory masks during pandemics; and against half the population not having the common sense to understand that masks are very effective against spreading the virus, and being oblivious to the example set by Taiwan and Singapore) with case histories and work shops; 2) economics and investing (with annual economic forecasting and portfolio management competitions), including explaining why QE financing can often avoid the need to increase taxes or cut spending; why QE-financed tax rebates (not ultra-low interest rates) should be the standard economic stimulus tool; why long-term capital gains taxes should be eliminated, being especially unfair to homeowners but also to investors and economically counterproductive; and why many mainstream economic theories governing our economic policy are fallacies, such as those regarding budget deficits and the causes of inflation, as proved by relevant statistical history; 3) analysis of domestic and world history in great detail from 1900, focusing on the causes of World War I and II; on the causes of communism in Russia and why communism failed; on the causes of fascism in Germany and Italy; on the causes of the Great Depression; on the various causes of anti-Semitism and its culmination in the Holocaust; on the causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (“land” is a simplistic explanation); and on the causes of Islamic terrorism; 4) ethics and empathy (missing all too much in our society and government, as exemplified by our having separated migrant children from their parents) with case histories and workshops; 5) the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rightsand the history of human rights violations, which would serve to totally discredit racism, sexual and religious discrimination, intolerance, and censorship; 6) introductory law and Constitutional law, including explaining why the Justice Department’s OLC rule against indicting sitting presidents (ordered by Nixon to protect himself as Watergate was unfolding) is corrupt and unconstitutional; why the presidential pardon power is constitutionally limited by conflict of interest and corruption considerations (ours is not a banana republic constitution); and why attorneys general must recuse themselves from all matters pertaining to the presidents who appointed them (this conflict of interest rule would have freed the Mueller Report indictments to be prosecuted instead of being illegally suppressed by Attorney General Barr); 7) comparative religion, pointing out major religions’ similarities and differences, and the many egregious violations of human rights in the three holy books of monotheism; 8) history of art, architecture, and design; 9) history of music; 10) the major mistakes in economic, social, and foreign policy over the past 100 years and which would have been the correct policies; 11) a four year course on psychology accompanied by indispensable “group therapy” and “good parenting” workshops, which would greatly reduce violence, crime, addiction, abusive behavior, and psychological problems. Of critical importance is to have individual assistance for students having academic or psychological problems, in order to prevent them from falling behind and dropping out. This public school reform is absolutely essential for the nation. One can safely bet that not one of our politicians has a well-rounded education, and that they all have deficient knowledge in many of the critically important topics listed above.
When will common sense finally prevail so that our nation’s priority is to provide universally excellent public schools equal to the best private schools, if not even better, thanks to an enlightened high school curriculum along with strict class discipline and lots of homework (the formula of all successful private schools), and individual attention for students having academic or psychological difficulties? In addition, year-round well-organized after-school activities in the arts and sports should be offered by every public school on all weekends and vacations, including the entire summer break. All that is essential for ensuring equal opportunity, as well as a prosperous, serene, and united society with minimal political divisions.
What is very dangerous for a democracy is to have half the population illogical, undereducated, and mentally disturbed. (To be for Trump who repeatedly asserted that Covid is a “Democratic hoax”, who ridiculed and dissuaded the wearing of masks, and who insisted in March that Covid would quickly disappear on its own, you have to be either severely illogical, undereducated, or mentally disturbed, or all three.) Inevitably, that will lead to voting for incompetent or dishonest politicians and for bad policies. That will also lead to many resentful, frustrated, angry, potentially violent citizens who find themselves fallen far behind. Those dispirited citizens can be attracted to and manipulated by malign demagogues, even aspiring dictators. Our scandalous shortcoming in not providing a universally excellent public school education with an enlightened curriculum is attributable to our very mediocre (can one fairly say “deplorable”?) political leaders of the past 50 years, who have been responsible for repeated gross failures in economic, social, and foreign policy. If we want highly competent government, we need to require all our political candidates to show they are truly qualified, i.e., capable of explaining all the major mistakes in economic, social, and foreign policy of the past 100 years, and which would have been the correct policies. By that standard, none of our presidents, senators, representatives, governors, and mayors have been truly qualified. When have we ever had any truly qualified politicians? How illogical is it to believe that just being a lawyer makes a person qualified to be president, or senator, or representative?
What should be clear is the need for a very advanced post graduate degree for all political candidates, ensuring a high degree of logic/critical thinking and a high degree of expertise in economic, social, and foreign policy. Due to unqualified political leaders, we have been paying a very high price in terms of poverty, addiction, violence, crime, racism, bitter political divisions, incompetent policy decisions, and high taxes. Today, we are even risking the destruction of our democracy at the hands of various corrupt, immoral, unqualified, incompetent, demagogic politicians backed by enormous numbers of undereducated citizens who fall for them and for absurd conspiracy theories. It’s the fault of our collective complacency and lack of common sense. Will we, as a nation, finally see the light before it’s too late? How long before truly qualified candidates with enlightened, detailed platforms are sought out and elected? How long before we finally provide a truly excellent, enlightened public school education nationwide, in order to have a very well-educated, well-rounded, well-adjusted, highly moral citizenry committed to democracy and human rights, and a serene, economically and socially prosperous nation?
© Edward Sonnino 2020
December 31, 2020
