Why Biden Will Win By A Wide Margin

Although many are expecting a tight race, which might not even be decided for a few days after Election Day, most probably Biden will win by such a wide margin that he will be called the projected winner by 11pm on November 3, the day of the election.

Why is it logical to expect Biden to win easily, if not even by a landslide? Because Trump will not win nearly as many votes as he did in 2016, and Biden will win many more votes than Hillary did in 2016.

It is illogical to assume that Trump has expanded his base, what with his disgraceful behavior over his entire presidency and his brutal, even criminal, mishandling of Covid-19. At best he has maintained his base at around 40% of the electorate. Secondly, it is illogical to assume that he will retain the substantial 2016 anti-Hillary vote, since Biden, contrary to Clinton, is generally well liked and not despised. Thirdly, Trump will lose many of the independents and moderate Republicans who voted for him in 2016, as they are disgusted with him. Lastly, there are no third-party candidates, who garnered around 3% of the 2016 vote. That 3% will go almost entirely to Biden. The logical calculation is for Biden to win 60% of the vote, and Trump 40%. That would mean a landslide victory for Biden, with the result apparent by 11pm on Election Day. And it would mean the beginning of the end of the nation’s four-year nightmare.

Why only the beginning of the end of the Trump nightmare? Because the source of the Trump nightmare will not vanish by itself. It is the result of a failed public school system, due to a severely deficient curriculum which leaves all too many high school graduates with very little knowledge, little culture, little logic and critical thinking abilities, and little appreciation of ethics and civic duty. It is also the result of a national moral laxness, even permissiveness, exemplified by the widespread toleration of dishonesty by some of our most prominent politicians.

The example is set from above. While there was finally some outrage over Nixon’s dishonesty, there was none with Bill Clinton’s dishonesty. The Democratic Party set the tone of permissiveness by defending him and not removing him after his impeachment. Defending a president who takes advantage of a young intern in a disgraceful manner and then lies to the American public gives a bad message, that crudely misbehaving and lying by a president is tolerable. If that were not enough, Clinton was not severely rebuked and kicked out of the Democratic Party for pardoning Marc Rich on the last day of his presidency in exchange for a large monetary contribution to the Clinton Foundation. That pardon was corrupt. The Constitution, a highly moral document, cannot be interpreted as allowing corrupt pardons.

Bill Clinton and the Democratic Party set the table for Donald Trump. The Republican Party misbehaved just like the Democratic Party, defending a clearly immoral and guilty Trump and not removing him after impeachment, reinforcing the message to the American people that dishonesty and immorality is tolerable, even acceptable at the highest level.

There is dismay among Democrats and some Republicans that many Trump followers believe in QAnon. But that disgrace is the result of not having an enlightened public high school curriculum, which is why we have so many undereducated Americans who are also not mentally well adjusted. Then there is widespread dismay regarding gun violence and addiction. Instead of calls for ineffective drug and gun control measures (black markets always exist), Democrats and Republicans should propose a four-year high school course in psychology along with group therapy and good parenting workshops. Psychologically well-adjusted citizens are not violent even if they own guns, and don’t become addicts even if drugs are available.

There is widespread dismay among Democrats regarding Republicans calling for outlawing abortion (which is just as ineffective as drug and gun control laws). Both sides show limited thinking. Since no one celebrates abortions, and everyone agrees they are sad events whether or not for moral or religious considerations, finesse the divisive debate by concentrating on the logical goal of avoiding unwanted pregnancies. Since most unwanted pregnancies happen to high school dropouts, the focus should be on preventing students from falling behind, with individual attention and mandatory extra study hall for all those having academic difficulty. Instead of agreeing on a practical solution, Democrats and Republicans insist on wasting time on ideological debates.

Democrats should stop alienating Republicans by repudiating socialism and high taxes, stating they are for solving our social problems through intelligent, practical measures in concert with a free market economy. Meanwhile Republicans should stop alienating Democrats by agreeing to solve our social problems even if that requires government spending, recognizing that can be achieved without raising taxes by using QE financing appropriately, and that once social problems are solved through a universally excellent education, taxes can be dramatically reduced. As for the religion divide, it can be bridged by having a high school course on the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights accompanied by the history of human rights violations; a course on comparative religion; and a course on Constitutional Law, being careful to explain that freedom of religion does not mean freedom to violate our Constitution. It must be made clear that the Constitution comes first, not the holy books of monotheism. We have separation of church and state, we are a secular republic, not a religious republic.

How have we fallen so far as a nation, still with widespread poverty 55 years after Lyndon Johnson declared the “War on Poverty”; still with widespread addiction; still with widespread neuroses; still with a low average level of education and little culture; still with widespread racism; still with high levels of violence; still with repeated foreign policy blunders; still with repeated totally avoidable long recessions and periods of high unemployment due to an economics profession stubbornly sticking to economic theories flatly contradicted by the statistics of past decades? It’s all due to an inadequate public school education, itself due to a deficient curriculum. Of crucial importance, an enlightened high school curriculum would include a four-year course explaining all the major mistakes in economic, social, and foreign policy over the past 100 years, and which would have been the correct policies. That way we’d finally have knowledgeable citizens and politicians in some of the most important topics, and we’d finally solve our deep national shortcomings.

© Edward Sonnino 2020

November 2, 2020


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Edward Sonnino

Edward Sonnino

Born and raised in New York City. Best course in college: history of art. Profession: economic forecaster and portfolio manager. Fluent in French and Italian.